When SpaceX goes public, what’s worth paying attention to is not how much it can rise on day one, but rather the bigger question: when the market packs rocket launches, satellite internet, AI compute, commercial space, and Musk’s personal influence into one price tag, are we really buying a company’s fundamentals—or are we prepaying for a huge future vision? That question matters a lot.
Because in investing, what most easily makes people lose rationality is often not an ordinary company, but a company that looks truly great.
If a company has no story, no moat, and no growth space, people actually tend to stay calm.
But if a company is called SpaceX, with rockets, Starlink, Starship, the space economy, AI infrastructure, and Musk behind it, then it’s different.
At that point, many people are not making an investment judgment—they are making an emotion judgment.
If I don’t get in this time, will I miss another era?
That is the power of a super-hot IPO.
It doesn’t just make you feel a company has value.
It also makes you feel that if you don’t participate, you’re standing outside the door of the future.
So in today’s episode, I’m not rushing to say whether SpaceX will be the next legend.
We need to break the question down more simply.
First, where does SpaceX’s expensiveness really come from?
Second, why is market sentiment this hot?
Third, should ordinary investors chase it, wait, or keep their hands in their pockets for now?
If you think Hai Ge’s style of breaking down U.S. stock hot spots and translating Wall Street logic into something regular people can understand has value, please give Zonghai Finance a like and subscribe to the channel.
What really matters next is not how cool SpaceX is, but how we stay clear-headed when everything is most exciting.
Let’s start with the first question.
Is SpaceX expensive?
Yes. In fact, very expensive.
But it’s not an expensive name with no logic behind it.
Some companies are expensive because the market is purely speculating on a concept, while the company itself has no product, no customers, no revenue, and no clear path.
SpaceX is not exactly like that.
It has real business, real technology, real users, and real revenue sources.
So the reason the market gives it such a high valuation is that it believes SpaceX may control several key gateways in the future space economy.
The first gateway is space transport.
That means rocket launches, and Starship.
What SpaceX is trying to change is to turn rockets from disposable consumables into reusable transport vehicles.
The commercial meaning of that is huge.
If rockets can be reused, launch costs can fall.
Once launch costs fall, satellite deployment can speed up.
Once satellite deployment speeds up, Starlink can cover more regions.
So the rocket is not a standalone showpiece project.
The second gateway is global connectivity.
That’s Starlink.
What does the capital market like most?
It likes businesses that can charge repeatedly.
For the capital market, that kind of revenue quality is easier to value.
That’s why Wall Street pays such close attention to Starlink.
Because it’s no longer just a space dream.
It has already become a business that can collect money.
Users, bills, service, and recurring payments.
But that brings another question.
Does fast user growth automatically mean good business? Not necessarily.
That’s where ARPU comes in.
ARPU sounds technical, but it’s simple.
It means how much money each user contributes to the company on average.
Starlink follows the same logic.
User growth is important, of course.
But whether revenue per user can stay stable is even more important.
If user numbers keep growing and ARPU stays stable—or even rises as enterprise, aviation, shipping, and government customers grow—then the story becomes much more solid.
Because that means Starlink is not just expanding through cheap pricing; it is really increasing the value of the service.
But if user growth is fast while ARPU keeps falling, the market will eventually ask:
Is this scale effect, or price competition?
Is this healthy growth, or expansion just to support a valuation?
That’s what ordinary investors need to understand.
Don’t just look at user counts.
And don’t just look at headlines.
The third gateway is future space infrastructure and AI compute.
This is where the imagination is biggest, but uncertainty is also greatest.
Orbital data centers, space AI compute, future lunar infrastructure—these all sound exciting.
But for investors, the bigger the story, the more important the timeline.
Some things are already commercialized.
Like Starlink.
Some things are in progress.
Like Starship reuse and launch frequency.
And some things are still mostly long-term imagination.
Like large-scale space AI infrastructure.
You can’t mix all of those together in one bucket.
If you treat ten-year possibilities as if they were today’s certainty, investing can go wrong fast.
The thing high-valuation companies fear most is not having no future.
It’s the future being too far away.
The market can prepay for dreams.
But it won’t wait forever for you to deliver the work.
If delivery speed can’t keep up with valuation expectations, the stock will start to reprice.
That’s why I say SpaceX is expensive, but not irrationally so.
It’s expensive because of future gateways, scarcity, the Musk effect, the recurring revenue model of Starlink, and the long-term imagination of the space economy.
But having logic behind a price doesn’t mean any price is a buy.
Even a great company can make you lose money very gracefully if you buy it too expensively.
That sounds harsh, but it’s true.
Now let’s talk about the second question.
Why is market sentiment so hot this time?
I think there are three main reasons.
The first is scarcity.
There really aren’t many companies in the world that can bundle reusable rockets, satellite internet, commercial space, government contracts, and a future AI-compute story into one package.
Capital markets naturally give a premium to scarce assets.
Look at the AI rally—it’s the same logic.
Why does Nvidia command such a high valuation?
Because the market thinks it is too scarce in AI compute.
When capital feels an access point is hard to replace, it is willing to pay a higher price.
SpaceX has a similar logic now.
The market asks:
If the space economy really takes off, who looks most like the core gateway?
The answer easily points to SpaceX.
That’s the sentiment premium created by scarcity.
The second reason is Musk.
In the capital market, Musk is a very powerful emotion amplifier.
The same future vision, if spoken by an ordinary CEO, might just get a nod and get logged in the earnings call.
If Musk says it, media will write about it, retail traders will discuss it, institutions will model it, short sellers will get nervous, and analysts will revalue it.
That is the power of a personal brand.
Why has Tesla been able to enjoy such a high valuation for so long?
Because it has EVs, FSD, Robotaxi, energy storage, and robots.
But Musk himself is also impossible to ignore in the valuation.
That naturally pulls a huge amount of attention.
The third reason is retail participation.
A lot of super IPOs used to be a game where institutions ate first and retail watched from the sidelines.
By the time the stock really lists and retail can buy it, the price may already not be cheap.
So every time a super-hot name shows up, people feel something very complicated.
They want in, but fear getting cut.
They want to stay calm, but fear missing out.
That’s FOMO.
It’s the fear that others get rich first, and you’re left clapping on the sidelines.
Musk’s second super capital story.
The entrance to the space economy.
Starlink subscription revenue.
Future AI infrastructure.
A globally scarce asset.
Put those words together and they’re enough to make many people’s rationality temporarily go offline.
But at times like this, you need to remind yourself of three things.
Hot demand does not mean it’s safe to chase.
A great company does not mean any price is worth paying.
A moving story does not mean the stock won’t pull back.
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Because the next part is where things really matter for ordinary investors’ accounts.
Let’s get to the third question.
What should ordinary investors actually do?
Hai Ge suggests dividing people into three groups.
The first group is those who are already preparing to participate, or have already gotten a SpaceX allocation.
The first thing you should ask yourself is not whether it can rise.
It’s: are you buying it for a few days of sentiment trading, or for fundamentals over three years and beyond?
Those are completely different.
If you’re buying short-term sentiment, discipline must come first.
You need to think ahead about position size, where you admit you’re wrong, where you take profit, and under what conditions you stop adding.
Don’t say you’re a short-term trader at the start.
Then when it falls, suddenly call yourself a long-term believer.
That’s not an investment system.
That’s your emotions helping explain losses.
One of the most common problems for retail investors is:
Buying as a trader.
Getting trapped and becoming a long-term investor.
The account turns red, and your identity instantly upgrades into a value-belief holder.
It sounds funny, but it happens all the time.
Short-term trading is not impossible.
But if you do short-term, you need short-term discipline.
You can’t use a long-term story as an excuse for short-term losses.
If you’re buying for long-term fundamentals, then what you watch is not how much it rises on day one, and not who on social media posts gains again.
You need to watch three report cards.
The first is Starlink user growth.
Can users keep growing? That tells you whether the space-broadband network is still expanding.
But you also need to look at the user mix.
If it’s only personal users growing, that’s fine.
But if enterprise, aviation, shipping, and government customers keep expanding, the valuation logic gets much stronger.
Because those customers usually pay better and have steadier demand.
The second is ARPU.
If user growth is fast but ARPU keeps falling, be careful.
That may mean the company is using lower pricing to buy scale.
Using low prices to buy scale is not a sin.
Many platform companies started that way.
The key is whether they can raise prices later, lower costs, and turn scale into profit.
If not, it’s just noise.
If yes, then it’s a real business.
The third is Starship.
Starship is not a normal technical project.
It’s the engine behind many big stories at SpaceX.
If Starship launches more often, reuse efficiency improves, and launch costs keep falling, Starlink deployment will be faster and the imagination around future space infrastructure will grow stronger.
But if Starship keeps getting delayed, the market will recalculate:
How long do we still have to wait for this super story?
So for a long-term SpaceX investment, you can’t just rely on saying, ‘I believe in Musk.’
At the end of the day, the account still needs data to speak.
Stories light the fuse; data decides whether the rocket can fly steadily.
The second group is those who haven’t entered yet and are still watching.
I actually think there’s no need to rush.
The market won’t cancel your investment card just because you buy one day late.
Many hot IPOs are the easiest places to get swept up emotionally on day one.
One minute, everyone feels like they’ve missed Mars colonization.
The next minute, stock volatility reminds them what risk feels like.
The question you should ask is not:
Will I miss it?
It should be:
Is this price worth the risk I’d be taking?
Those are not the same question.
Fear of missing out is emotion.
Worth it or not is investing.
If sentiment cools later, volume slows, and price returns to a more rational range, it’s still fine to observe in batches.
A mature investor won’t jump in just because others are yelling to get on board.
They’ll first look at speed, direction, fuel, and brakes before deciding whether to sit down.
Especially with a high-valuation, high-hype, high-volatility new stock like this, missing the first green candle is not necessarily a bad thing.
Sometimes what you missed was not the opportunity.
It was the wind at the top.
The third group is those with limited capital, or who still don’t really understand it.
Don’t hand your account over to FOMO just to prove you can keep up with the hottest names.
SpaceX’s story is huge.
But the volatility may also be huge.
Don’t invest with borrowed money.
Don’t go all in.
And never use money needed for life’s essentials to gamble on a grand future story.
The goal is to stay in the market a little longer.
Many people think investing is about catching the biggest opportunities.
But for ordinary investors, what matters more is not getting knocked out of the game by one big swing.
As long as you stay at the table, the market always has another chance.
But if one emotional oversized bet takes you out, then no matter how big the next rally is, it has nothing to do with you.
That’s the meaning of position management.
A lot of people don’t like hearing about risk control.
Because risk control doesn’t sound exciting.
No ten-bagger, no financial freedom, no rocket ticket.
But everyone who can stay in the market for the long run understands one thing:
Investing is not about who charges fastest.
It’s about who can still stay calmly in the game when things go against them.
What should you really watch next?
Don’t just stare at how SpaceX trades on day one.
Day-one pricing is mostly an emotional vote.
The fundamentals over the next few months are the real exam.
First, watch Starlink.
Are users still growing strongly?
Are enterprise, aviation, shipping, and government customers still expanding?
That decides whether it’s becoming a more valuable subscription business.
If Starlink only has user growth but weak profitability quality, its valuation will be capped.
If Starlink has more users, stable ARPU, and an increasingly premium customer mix, then it’s not just satellite broadband—it may become global connectivity infrastructure.
Second, watch ARPU.
If users rise fast but ARPU keeps falling, be cautious.
That may mean the company is buying scale with low prices.
Low-price scaling is not a sin.
But investors must see whether it can make money later.
Third, watch Starship.
Starship determines the cost curve.
If costs truly keep falling, then Starlink deployment, commercial launches, orbital infrastructure, and even more distant space compute have room to expand.
Fourth, watch Wall Street’s disagreement.
Any super-hot name will eventually get two voices.
One will say it could be the next Tesla, or even have more imagination than Tesla.
Another will say the valuation is too high, the payoff too slow, and the volatility too big.
Then ask yourself:
How much can I make?
How much can I lose?
Can my position handle it?
Can my cash flow support it?
Will my mindset stay balanced?
That’s the real homework before investing.
A lot of people only like reading content that supports their own view.
If you want to buy, you only look at the positives.
If you’re already heavily invested, you automatically ignore the risks.
If you like Musk, you think every criticism lacks vision.
But investing is not about comforting yourself.
Investing is about knowing where you might be wrong.
Finally, let’s put this into a bigger frame.
SpaceX going public is not an ordinary
IPO.It is an important milestone in Musk’s space empire being priced by the public market.
Behind this price are rocket reuse,Starlink subscription revenue, Starship cost reduction, government contracts, the space economy, and the imagination around future AI infrastructure.
If the market has already paid for many years of the future in advance, then SpaceX has to earn that ticket price back little by little through fundamentals.
So the real point of this episode is not whether SpaceX jumps on day one.
It’s what you’re actually buying.
Are you buying short-term sentiment?
Or long-term cash flow?
Are you buying Musk’s personal halo?
Or the long-term gateway to the space economy?
If you haven’t thought these through, there’s no need to rush an order.
If you’re buying short-term sentiment, then execute the discipline strictly.
Cut losses when you should, take profits when you should, and don’t turn trading into prayer.
There is never only one market opportunity.
But once you lose principal, you really do have one less chance.
Finally, Hai Ge leaves everyone with one sentence:
SpaceX may be an important starting point for the space economy.
But SpaceX stock is not necessarily worth buying at every price.
Alright, if you feel this episode helped you understand the investment logic behind SpaceX, please give Zonghai Finance a like, subscribe to the channel, and turn on the bell.
Going forward, SpaceX, Tesla, AI infrastructure, and the space economy will very likely continue to affect the U.S. stock market.
I’ll keep helping everyone watch the key data and the risk signals.
And I’ll leave the comments section for your thoughts.
Do you think SpaceX is the starting point of the space economy, or the hottest stress test for Wall Street sentiment?
Over the next 6 months, do you like Starlink, Starship, or the valuation premium from Musk himself more?
Feel free to write your view in the comments. I’m Zonghai Finance—we’ll see you next time.
